Last week, I had the pleasure of spending time at the Brooklyn Historical Society as part of the project Students and Faculty in the Archives. I looked at several very interesting old maps of Brooklyn including a map from 1852 created by M. Dripps that shows every farm with its acreage. This map also included the Rockaway Peninsula and all of Jamaica Bay.
What fascinates me about the Rockaway Peninsula is that the ocean side hasn’t changed much except that the entire peninsula extended only to Barren Island (now Floyd Bennett field) while it now extends as far west as Manhattan Beach. It is this tip that didn’t exist in 1852 that is threatened by sea level rise.

Kings and Part of Queens Counties, Long Island, NY, M. Dripps, 1852. Brooklyn Historical Society Map Collection.
The bay side on the 1852 map has more or less the same shape as today. A large bulge where the neighborhoods Arverne and Edgemere are now is marked “Hassock” on the map which according to dictionary.com means “A firm clump of grass in marshy or boggy ground.”

Kings and Part of Queens Counties, Long Island, NY, M. Dripps, 1852. Brooklyn Historical Society Map Collection.
The whole west portion of this knob of land, everything west of Beach 68 St., is predicted by the Weiss and Overpeck map to be underwater given a 1 meter sea level rise. I can’t help but notice that there is a good deal of overlap between the 1852 map and Weiss and Overpeck’s map of 2100 while both differ significantly from the shoreline we know today. This coincidence leads me to speculate that the first areas to be inundated will be those areas that have been created by landfill. Maybe this is totally obvious but I found it a revelation.
On May 25th, I went out to the Rockaways. The area from Beach 115 to 84th or so is not predicted to suffer from flooding or sea level rise. There was work being done to the train. (What do you call the subway when it is not underground?)

Rockaway Fwy., Rockaway Park, Queens, NY
There are some sweet homes tucked in on 101st between Beach Channel Dr. and Rockaway Fwy.

Beach 101st St., Rockaway Park, Queens, NY
The development in this area is uneven and creates some striking juxtapositions of scale

Beach 100th St., cr. Rockaway Fwy., May 25, 2011
and style.

Beach 101st St., Rockaway Park, Queens, NY
Here really only the slivers at the edge of the ocean and the bay are flood zones. The boardwalk on this May morning was primarily being used by people out to exercise.

Boardwalk, Rockaway Park, Queens, NY, May 25th, 2011
While the beach is projected to erode, the buildings along Shore Front Parkway are probably okay given a one-meter sea level rise.

Rockaway Park, Queens, NY, May 25th, 2011
This old skate park is between Beach 92nd and 91st. Without really active beach management, the ocean is predicted to come up approximately to here in 2100.

Skate park, Beach 91st St., Rockaway Beach, Queens, NY, May 25th, 2011
It is hard to imagine that these new condos will be around in 90 years. But if they are, they will really be ocean side.

Skate park, Beach 91st St., Roackaway Beach, Queens, NY, May 25th, 2011
Arverne-by-the-Beach should be fine.

Arverne-by-the-Beach, Arverne, Queens, NY, May 25, 2011

Beach 69th St., Arverne, Queens, NY, May 25, 2011
It is the from the bay side that the water will rise. The Weiss and Overpeck map has sea level rise putting the bay through half of the property which now hosts Carleton Manor, an eleven story housing authority building in which about 400 people now live. The nyc flood maps show this block as being an island in the flood zone.

Beach 70th St., Arverne, Queens, NY, May 25, 2011
I then walked up Beach 69th St. This area on the other side of Rockaway Fwy., once hassock, is predicted to have more and more trouble with flooding and return to water.

Beach 69th St., Arverne, Queens, Ny, May 25, 2011

Beach 69th St., Arverne, NY, Queens, NY, May 25, 2011

Beach 69th St., Arverne, NY, Queens, NY, May 25, 2011
At the end of Beach 69th St., is Jamaica Bay.

Beach 69th St., Arverne, Queens, NY, May 25, 2011
Attracted by the cement factory, I turned down Gouverneur Avenue which turns into Failing Avenue for part of a block.

Failing Avenue, Arverne, Queens, NY, May 25, 2011
The end.

Beach 72nd St., Arverne, Queens, NY, May 25, 2011